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Statistics of Flying
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Statistics; ...As of Oct 2001; 2000 Statistics; ...1999 Was a Very Good Year; ...General Info; ...1998 Stats; 1996 for 100,000 hours of Flying; ...1997 Nall Report; Airline Pilots; 1998 Nall Report; 1999 Nall Report; Your CFI as a Hazard; ...Probable Causes...Engine Component Failure Accidents; ... Descending Order of Mechanical Failure; ...Retractables; ...Fixed Gear Accidents; ...Night Accidents; ...Mountain Accidents; ...Wire Strikes; ...Wake Turbulence; ...Shoulder Harness; ...Weather Accidents; ...Accidents by Experience Level;... IFR Rated Pilots; ...Non-IFR Pilot; ...Why Accidents?;...Thoughts on Thoughts; ...Coffee; ...Alcohol; ...Smoking; ...Data for the West 1992....Fatalities and Survival; ...Stall Spin Accidents; ...Forced Landings; ...Fuel Accidents; ...Nice to Know Information; ...Aviator's Lies; ...Flight Contradictions; ...Where Accidents Happen; ...Accident Precipitating Causes 1991; ...ATC Problems in Descending Order; ...FAR Violations in Descending Order; ...Midair Accident Last 10 years; ...Historical Midairs ;...More on Mid-airs ; ...Controlled Flight into Terrain; ...Bird Strikes; Taildraggers; Twins; ...2003 Statistics
You cannot a avoid the statistics of the group to which you belong , but you can vary where you are on the probability curve.
"Most people use statistics like a drunk uses a streetlight! For support instead of illumination!"
1947 general aviation accidents totaled 9253.
1990s general aviation accidents ranged from 1700 to 1900 per year.
Half of multi-pilots would not survive an actual engine failure on takeoff using their current emergency procedures.
Only 6% of the U.S. women are pilots.
Women pilots threaten some men's macho identity. Some men think that they are losing status by sharing the skies with mere women. I have found the women pilots I have taught to be better, over all, than the men.
Statistics as of Oct 2001
--If you are rushed for time you are eleven times more likely to make a mistake than if you have ample time.
--Safe travel by airline vs. car favors the car for short distances but beyond 200 miles airplanes are safer.
--The backswept wing reduces drag because it is aerodynamically a thinner wing.
--The air flow over a backswept wing causes the airflow to travel a greater distance.
--The thinner the wing can fly faster with the actual airflow slower over the wing.
--Vacuum failure causes average of two fatal accidents per year.
--NTSB recommends FAA treat all vacuum failures as emergencies.
--Instructional accidents increased 62 percent between 1999 and the year 2000 due to midair and spins.
--Pilot error cause of 70 percent of non-fatal accidents and 80 percent of fatal accidents.
--Over 1/3 of light aircraft accidents are related to landings.
--Landings result in less than five percent of light aircraft fatal accidents
--Light aircraft landings damage 500 aircraft per year.
--40 percent of all accidents occur during landings
--Almost 70 percent of this 40 percent are retractables and twins but few fatalities
--Takeoff and climb accidents are far more likely to result in fatalities.
--Instructional flying makes up 18 percent of the flying and 14 percent of the accidents
--Personal flying and aerial application have a poorer accident record than instructional flying
--Only aerial observation, corporate and public use flying have a better fatality record than instruction
--Twenty percent of twin engine accidents are just because there are two engines.
--Less than half of non-training twin accidents occur soon after takeoff. It is the surprise that kills.
--Given speed and altitude, pilot skill is the essential twin-engine ingredient rather than luck.
--12 percent of retractable single engine fatal accidents are because they only have one engine.
--There are always times when a single engine failure has some potential for a serious problem
--Light singles have better safety record than single retractables or light twins.
--Half of mid-airs happen below 500 feet
--Mid-airs usually count only half of aircraft involved.
--14 planes a year are involved in fatal midair collisions. That's only seven accidents.
--75 percent occur below 3000 feet.
--75-percent of mid-airs occurred at combination of formation flying and uncontrolled airports.
--81 percent of 'incursions' are essentially non-events.
--Engine loses 3 percent of power for every 1000 feet of altitude
--In four year period ending with 2000 over 1300 incursions were reported with three minor accidents.
--By the age sixty you will need three times the light to see by as you did at 20.
--Average of 17 IFR aircraft fly into terrain every year. 50-percent of them at night.
--IFR controlled flight into terrain usually occurs on approach after radar service has been terminated.
--Visual illusions or disorientation cause 21 percent of IFR approach and landing accidents
--1975 ten percent of fatalities had alcohol as factor
--Late 1990s it was 7.3 percent
--Illegal drug use now runs at 5 percent
--DUI and DWI investigation program requires pilots disclose any actions when applying for medicals.
--Antidepressants are not permitted in airmen..
--Civil Aviation Security Compliance and Enforcement Branch must also be informed of DUI/DWI actions.
--A passenger on a commercial airplane could fly every day for 29,000 years before becoming a statistic.
--Facts have nothing to do with fears.
The chance of someone on the ground being injured in a general aviation accident is one is in 50 million. Less than the chance of being hit by lightning.
--Less that 15% of general aviation accidents are from mechanical failure.
--Most general aviation incursions are not classed as serious and with little risk of causing an accident.
--Public use airports are closing at a rate of two a month.= 24 per year.
--There are more than 2000 current pilots over 80; 30 pilots are over 90; oldest is 99
--Based on this information I can expect to fly twenty more years....Gene at 79
---Slightly more than half of GA accidents are takeoff/landing related.
---SEL fixed gear aircraft have 37% of the landing accidents rare fatalities.
---2-3% of accidents were VFR into IFR but fatalities over 80% in these situations.
---VFR into IFR with complex aircraft have 90% fatality rate.
---Proportion of fuel related accidents still high
---2/3 of accidents during takeoff, maneuvers, landing
---Two-percent of VFR into IFR basis for total accidents.
---Weather accidents highest fatality probability
---Accidents not skill related as much as judgment related.
-- Nearly 20 percent of Tomahawk accidents derive from the stall/spin;
--14 percent from PA-28 140
--10 percent from C-150 with the C-172 only slightly lower.
-- The C-182 and Piper Warrior are a fraction over 4 percent.
--1975 ten percent of fatalities had alcohol as factor
--Late 1990s it was 7.3 percent
--Illegal drug use now runs at 5 percent
--DUI and DWI investigation program requires pilots disclose any actions when applying for medical.
--Civil Aviation Security Compliance and Enforcement Branch must also be informed of DUI/DWI actions.
--Greater use of autopsy gave more 'pilot incapacitation' as factor
--Half of engine failure fatal accidents were mechanical with 40% of them twins. (Skewing of statistics)
--Of retractables 43 percent of fatal accidents were twins.
--Homebuilts had more fatal accidents that all retractables.
--There is no basis for deciding the better engine between Lycoming and Continental.
--A turbo engine will last longer the lower it flies.
--Leaning is more likely to damage a turbo engine than a normally aspirated engine.
--Driving is seven times safer than flying.
Fatal accident rate was the lowest since recorded history began in 1938. According to the data, the fatal
accident rate at 1.11 accidents per 100,000 hours flown during 1982 made a 44-percent improvement over the 1982 of the 591 fatals compared with 341 in 2000.
--90-percent decrease in rate per 100,000 hours of flying since 1938
--Weather-judgment error accidents dropped nearly 50-percent from '98 to '99.
--18-percent of flying was flight instruction with only 5-percent of the fatalities.
( http://www.aopa.org/whatsnew/newsitems/2001/01-1-065.html ).
10% of IFR accidents occur to non-IFR pilots.
VFR to IFR is the #1 pilot killer
Make one IFR approach and proceed to alternate for best risk reduction.
--The second most frequent cause of death for airline pilots
before 60 is a G.A. accident
--Pilot population peaked at 827,000 in 1980 and is now down to 635,000 now but rising with nearly 6% women.
--Half of all accidents happen to pilots with less than 100 hours in type.
--More than half of mid-air accidents involve pilots with less than 100 hours in type.
--One in ten accidents of all causes happened to pilots with less than 50 hours in type.
--The average total time of pilots involved in icing accidents is over 3000 hours.
--Icing accidents of experienced pilots occur at airports and are usually survived.
--Icing accidents of inexperienced pilots are usually off-airport and fatal.
--Fatal accidents due to power situations result 15% of the time at night
--Fatal accidents due to power situations result 19% of the time in daylight
--25% of the dayling accidents were in homebuilts and warbirds.
--Twins were in a high percentage of the night accidents.
--If you have fuel and good maintenance, engine failure at night is a small risk.
1999 Was a Very Good Year
1908 general aviation accidents
342 were fatal accidents
7.05 accidents per 100,000 hours of flying
In 1999 nearly 21% of nearly 1900 GA accidents occurred on takeoff second only to landings
--CFI PTS is now over 150 pages up from eight pages twenty years ago..
--GPS dependence has increased need for ATC flight assists to rise to record levels.
--CRM training reduces accident rates by 54%
--10% of IFR accidents occur to non-IFR pilots.
--General Aviation, in 1999, had the lowest accident and fatality rate since records have been kept. There was over an eleven percent reduction in fatal G.A accidents and a 1.7% decline in accidents.Fatal instructional accidents fell 9.1%. Of 18 instructional accidents, only two resulted in fatalities. At the present time, year 1999, there are 300,000 weather related airline delays cosing $3 billion. This amounts to $50 million of lost and unrecoverable revenue.
Basic to avoidance of bad situations is ADM (aeronautical decision-making)
All Accident Fatalities Rate
51.6 of all fatal accidents can be attributed to poor pilot decision making.
19 percent of all accidents have fatalities
31 percent of night accidents have fatalities
51 percent of IFR accidents have fatalities.
79 percent of night IFR accidents have fatalities.
11.6 of single accidents have fatalities
20.3 of single retractable accidents have fatalities
28.6 of multi-engine accidents have fatalities.
---50% of accidents involved G.A. pilots with less than 1000 hours.
---Over 50% of these pilots had time between 100 and 200 hours
---24% of these pilots had less than 300 hours.
1999 Was a Very Good Year;
; NTSB has a table of GA accident
Database with detailed descriptions of reportable accidents and incidents, at
Anaylsis of types of GA accidents, at
20-percent of all accident happen at takeoff. Adequate preflight is the most obvious preventative.
Less than 1% of aircraft accidents, caused primarily by fire, result in fatalities. Fires in aircraft are a rarity. The most dangerous aspect of an in-flight fire is the pilot who reacts incorrectly by not following the POH.
60% of fatal accidents are the result of improper decisions; 20% are the result of improper technique.
30% if all accidents are the result of flight into IMC conditions.
300,000 planes in 1980
190,000 planes in 2000..Oh, where have all the airplanes gone? Gone, gone, gone?
On average there is one operational error by ATC out of every
Only 98 back-course approaches exist in the U.S.
Homebuilt aircraft fly five percent of total flight hours but have 25 percent of maintenance accidents.
Decision making by the pilot is judged to be the direct casue of 85-percent of aircraft accidents.
23% of accidents were related to weather. Of these 8% gave icing as a cause.
Pilot population peaked at 827,000 in 1980. In 1999 we are at 635,000 and only 5% are women.
On average there are only two SVFR accidents per year but the fatality rate is over 80%. Over 60% of the accidents occur on departure. 30% result in flight into rising terrain.
67% of all pilot violations have to do with airspace deviations
68% of all runway incursions are caused by G.A. pilots.
Since 1993 we have had a 73% increase in near misses in the U. S. but only a 1l% increase in activity.
--The Katana promises to the the safest trainer ever.
--The C-172 is equally safe
--#l accident area is loss of aircraft control on the runway but incurrs few fatalities..
--Only one ourt of every ten engine failures result in a fatal accident.
--VFR into IFR percentage-wise kills the most.
--very high percentate of fuel exhaustion accidents occur within one mile of destination airport.
--One in five of Piper Cherokee accidents occur due to fuel problems.
--Fatal accident rate of Piper Warrior is significantly worse than other trainers.
--One in five of Tomahawk accidents are stall related.
--Over 20% of all G.A. fatal accidents had weather as contributing factor.
--50% of accidents derived from landings and takeoffs.
--27% fatal accidents occurred during low level maneuvers
--Nearly 30% of approach fatal accidents derived from improper IFR procedures
--Nearly 50% of fatal instrument approach accidents occurred at night.
--Only 12% of the accidents occurred at night
--75% of accidents related to pilot-related causes.
--67% of all 'deviations have to do with airspace and ATC services.
--G. A. aircraft make 68% of all runway incursions.
--An accident at night is three times as likely to be fatal as in the day time. (1999)
--44,000 transportation accidents
--General Aviation 621
--People vs train 831
Seaplanes have a relatively high rate of accidents.75% of aircraft accidents happen inside a terminal area.
Any hour and a half flight is likely to have an accident in a terminal area 20% of the time.
Statistics flying year 1998 has aerial application doing 6.5% of total flight hours, with 6.6% of total accidents and 1.8% of fatal accidents.
Personal flying has 43.5% of total flying, for 68.8% of total accidents and 72.1% of fatal accidents.
Business flying had 13.2% of total flying, 2.8% of total accidents and 4.1% of fatal accidents.
1996 for 100,000 Hours of Flying
Homebuilts 2% of the flying and 10% of the accidents with aircraft destroyed 52% more often and pilots killed 69% more often.
The decision making process is the problem with general aviation not the knowledge. We wait until we are in the air before determining if the flight can be continued.
You will run out of gas ten times before you have a mid-air. Thus, by always having plenty of fuel you don't need to watch for airplanes.
Only 11% of cold weather accidents have anything to do with the weather. 50% of these cold weather accidents result in fatalities.
Airline weather decisions are made on the ground prior to takeoff, not in the air.
23% of accidents were related to weather. Of these 8% gave icing as a cause.
Pilot population peaked at 827,000 in 1980. In 1999 we are at 635,000 and only 5% are women.
--An accident as a judgment failure.
--Pilots only spot one third of ATC traffic reported as significant.
--85% of scud running accidents result in fatalities
--Personal flying is 42% of all flying and 67% of the accidents
--Flight instruction is 20% of the flying and only 6% of the accidents.
--Pilots over 60 are more likely to die.
--Not having a current flight reviews have twice the accident risk as those who have taken a flight review.
--50% of airline accidents are survivable. 40% of airline fatalities are due to smoke and fire. Interior cabin materials are at fault and are being changed.
There are 60,000 CFIs
70 hour averge to private ticket.
50% of airspace vilations aoccur during VFR flight
1980 U.S. had 300,000 airplanes
2000 U.S. has fewer than 190,000 airplanes
The second most frequent cause of death among airline pilots prior to age 60 is a general aviation accident.
1998 Nall Report:
--VFR flight into IFR conditions is the leading source of fatalities. Judgment failures are the cause.
--Event-decision; event-decision sequence leads to accidents. Solution: Break chain.
--Scud running is dangerous because of past successes. 80% of scud accidents have fatalities.
--Most accidents occur in four summer months.
--Accident potential is determined by perceived importance, length, time and weather.
--Personal flying is over 40% of flying with nearly 70% of accidents.
--Instruction is 20% of flying with 6% of accidents. Make every flight instructional for safety's sake.
--Takeoff and climb are most dangerous during instruction. Go-arounds were #2 area.
--Takeoff and landing times have highest accident rate but few fatalities.
--Midairs occur during VFR, near an airport and at low altitudes.
--Two planes a week were crashing because fuel was not getting to the engine.
--No one was killed off-airport by an airplane.
--Nearly half of IFR approach accidents occur at night
--The hourly rate of IFR accidents is lower than the VFR rate but the fatality rate is three times higher.
1999 Nall Report
--Landings are the source of most accidents but few injuries.
--For every mile traveled airplanes have seven times as many accidents and automobiles.
--Because of aircraft speeds at impact the fatality rate in airplanes is higher than in automobiles.
--The impact in an accident rises at the square of the speed. Double speed gives 4 times impact. Triple speed gives 9 times impact.
--Aviation flies 10,000,000 miles for every accident
--A relatively few pilots cause most accidents. Pilot judgment of weather is major mistake area. Running out of fuel is still first cause of engine failure.
--25% of approach accidents occur at night
--Majority of fatal stalls occurs at pattern altitudes.
--75% of all accidents occur during the 43% of flying that is done for personal reasons.
--Non-professional business flying accounts for 13% of the flying but only 4% of the accidents.
--Instructional time is 22% with 6% of the accidents
--laurel applicators fly 6% of all flying but only 2% of Accidents. This is due to safety equipment.
Your CFI as a Hazard
--75% of flight training accidents related to improper gear operation occurs with CFI aboard.
--50% of stall accidents occur with CFI aboard
--50% of training mid-air accidents occur with CFI aboard.
--50% of wire strike occurring during flight training had CFI aboard.
--Nearly 50% of emergency simulations that resulted in accidents had CFI aboard.
--40% of carburetor icing accident in training occur with CFI aboard.
--33% of fuel related accidents occur with CFI aboard.
--A training spin accident is three times more likely to occur with a CFI than a solo student.
--25% of all twin-engine aircraft accidents have a CFI aboard.
1. Experience level of the pilot does not seem to matter in fuel related accidents.
2. 86% of aircraft fires are caused by electrical component failure.
3. Only 6% of aircraft fires causing accidents occur in flight.
4. 5% of accidents are fuel related:
5. 60% of the 5% the aircraft is out of fuel (3%)
6. 30% of the 5% the aircraft is starved with fuel aboard (1.5%)
7. 10% of the 5% the aircraft has contaminated fuel.(.5%)
Only three out of every 1000 people in the US are pilots.
Out of 67,000 licensed instructors in the U. s. only 15,000 are active.
Only 6% of the U.S. women are pilots.
--1998 in the United States and its territories, 43,920 people died in transportation-related accidents. Aviation accounted for 683 deaths, with 621 of them in GA.
--Bicyclists, recreational boaters, and people walking in front of trains notched 794, 808, and 831 fatalities, respectively.
--Women pilots threaten some men's macho identity. Some men think that they are losing status by sharing the skies with mere women. I have found the women pilots I have taught to be better, over all, than the men.
Plan for the worst and ask for ATC help up front.
The best way to hurry up is to slow down.
Best way to learn is by doing or by not doing, something
General Aviation has 98% of the planes flying 80% of the hours flown.
General Aviation Accidents:
1.51% of pilots were between 40-49
2. 71% were private pilots
3. 52% had below 500 hours
4. 46% had less than 100 hrs in type
5. 77% were not IFR rated
6. 57% less than 20 hrs IFR instruction
7. 55% got weather briefing
8. 80% not on flight plan
9. 83% were single engine
10. 62% owned airplane
11. 75% flying for personal reasons
12. 62% in cruise phase of flight
13. 61% crashed in fog
14. 75% were killed
15. 72% of aircraft were IFR equipped
16. 97% of accidents were pilot error
17. 42% of accidents were caused by misuse of weather data
18. 40% of pilots had no weather briefing
19. 30% of accidents caused by pilots mishandling aircraft
20. 14% of accidents related to poor judgment, planning or decision-making
21. 35% of VFR into IFR occur at night
22. 11% of people in VFR to IFR conditions survive accident
23. 50% of fatal accidents were by pilots who had over 500 hours.
24. 80% are caused by pilot error:
25. 20% of the 80% are caused by low level flight (16%)
26. 20% of the 80% are caused by flight into weather (16%)
27. 20% of the 80% happen in airport vicinity (5 miles 3000')(16%)
1989-1993 in the USA
1. Highway Accidents.... 228,000
2. Murders.................... 120,000
3. Home Accidents ..........105,000
4. falls............................. 62,000
5. Job accidents.............. 47,000
6. Pedestrians Killed ........33,500
7. Poisonings ..................26,000
8. Drownings ..................23,000
9.Fires ............................21,000 (90% caused by cigarettes)
10. Ingesting Food? ..........15,000
11. Boating Accidents........ 4,600
12. Bicycle Accidents......... 4,000
13. Railroad crossing ..........3,000
14. Animal vehicles ...............400
15. Major Airline Accidents ...265
16. Commuter Line Accidents 132
Most flying decisions are easy if the decision is based upon safety. Being safe does not mean without risk. Engine operations are safe but some 8 percent of accidents are caused by engine mechanical failure. Flight training makes up 20% of total flight activity but only 12% of the accidents. Mid-airs make less than 1.2 percent of aircraft accidents. Alcohol and drugs barely appear. Takeoff and landings make 50%. Pilot error 65% base cause of accidents. Risk of drowning at home in your bathtub is five times greater than of dying in an aircraft accident.
The influenza epidemic of 1918 killed over 500,000 in the U.S. and many millions more in the rest of the world. More people than have died in all the wars of the world.
Those big jets are pretty safe! The brochure made a comparison that your odds of dying in a commercial airliner are about the same as being struck by a meteorite!
Approximately 20 accidents per year occur because of deliberate flight in or near thunderstorms.
-- 83% seeing
--10% of what you read
--20% of what you hear
--30% of what you see
--50% of what you see and hear
--5% of what student says
--90% of what students say as they do.
After 3 hours.............. ...After 3 days
Lecture 70% recall ..........10% recall
Demonstration 72% .........20%
Lecture + Demo 85% ......65%
Private Pilot Written Test figures:
1997: Total tests taken 32,981, 92.1% passed the test, average score of 85.64%
1998: Total tests taken 32,831, 91.8% passed the test, average score of 85.43%
1. 92% of those taking test pass
2. Average grade is 85%
3. Regulations 88.4
4. Weather 86.3
5. Flight Planning 84.8
6. ATC/AIM 81.0
7. En route 85.1
8. Physiological 98.7
9. Basic Instruments 85.5
You go to school to make mistakes. If you must make mistakes, make them new ones. If you don't make any mistakes you have wasted both time and money.
On average, it takes 71 hours to get a pilots license. This average could be ten hours less if students would fly more often.
If the student thinks he ought to know it, he won't ask it.
The odds are overwhelming that your being involved in an aircraft accident will occur within 100 miles of your home airport.
The accident will be on takeoff or landing.
About 45 aircraft accidents occur every week only three are due to mechanical failures. Six out of every seven accidents caused by some mechanical failure result in no or only minor injuries. 25% of the injuries caused by the one in seven accidents where people are injured should not have resulted in injuries had proper procedures been followed.
Use of shoulder harnesses in all seats will reduce major injuries by 88% and fatalities by 20%. Retro-fit harness kits are available, not cheap but affordable. The FAA has not made installation easy. Not wearing an available harness is a violation of FAR 91.107
40% of the mechanical failures had to do with failed parts.
28% had to do with fuel/air problems.
8% had to do with ignition/electrical problems.
16% were from other causes such as controls
--Majority of single accidents are on the runway.
--Single fatality rate is at 10 percent of the accidents.
Aviation in 1996
46000 accidents 25 involved drugs or alcohol 20% were caused by mechanical problems 27% had terrain as a factor 2% had weight and balance problems 73% involved accumulative judgment mistakes mixed with VFR into IFR, Fuel
Exceeding aircraft capability
PIC not in control
25% of accidents occurred in maneuvering flight involving low, slow, maneuvers.
2% of planes are homebuilt they have 10% of the accidents and are twice as likely to be totally destroyed.
Half of homebuilt accidents occur in first 20 hours with pilots usually in the 40-49 age group.
87k% of homebuilt crashes are caused by pilot error.
13% of homebuilt power loss crashes are fatal. 17% of these power loss crashes are due to mechanical failure
usually related to fuel starvation, vapor lock, and carburetor ice.
1. One in five first flights have major difficulty
2. Majority of accidents are in first and second flights
3. Pilot error is the primary cause of homebuilt accidents
Why and When of Accidents
1. One fourth of forced landings are related to maintenance or mechanical failure.
2. 1/3 accidents in landing.
3. 1 in 5 accidents during takeoff.
4. 30% takeoffs and landings
5. 6% ground taxi
6. 6% collision with objects
7. Nearly 80% of all accidents take place during takeoff, approach, and within 2000' of the ground.
8. 90% of the accidents are generic (a matter of proficiency) and not specific to the aircraft.
9. The most likely aircraft accident will occur while taxiing.
10. The most dangerous times to fly is between 50 and 500 hours.
11. It is suicidal for a pilot with between 50 and 500 hours to taxi a plane that has been worked on by a mechanic.
12. Only 14% of serious (injury/death) accidents on takeoff are related to actual power failure.
13. At least another 14% occur because of incorrectly perceived power failure due to performance influenced by density/wind conditions.
14. The first ten hours in type are the most dangerous.
15. Accident frequency curves do not decrease until after 200 hours in type.
Engine Failure Accidents:
--22% of all accidents
-- 4% only partial failure
--30% undetermined reasons
--30% of which occurred during T/O or cruise
-- Pilot corrected cause after crash
Engine Failure Statistics
--28 percent of engine failures are for unknown reasons where fuel, air or spark are responsible.
--2 percent are internal failures sometimes detectable by oil analysis
--2 percent are oil problems related to pumps, filters or lines.
--3 percent are induction problems related to hoses, clogging or alternate air doors
--5 percent are spark problems related to spark plugs, magnetos, wiring harness, or switches.
--6 percent are related to poor maintenance
--7 percent are due to cylinder/valve problems due to improper leaning
--8 percent are fuel related problems of selectors, carburetors, primers, or pumps.
--8 percent are carburetor ice related where application of heat occurs too late to be effective.
--11 percent are from contaminated fuel
--20 percent are from starvation, exhaustion or other failure to deliver problems.
--Pilots are in the main most likely to be responsible for an engine failure.
Engine Component Failure Accidents:
1.Lycoming engines fail twice as often as Continental
2. Engine size has no effect of frequency of failure
3. 43% mechanical
4. 1 in 5 accidents during cruise. Cruise flight accidents due to weather and fuel.
5. 1 in 3 engine/prop
6. 1 in 4 due to gear or brakes
7. 1 in 6 due to fuel--Fuel exhaustion is most common factor.
8. 18% of engine type accidents caused by engine failure unrelated to pilot induced failure.
9. 1.296 per 100,000 flight hours
10. Pneumatic system is 1:40,000 IFR flight plans filed.
11. 25% of all accident occur after partial or total loss of engine power.
12. When planes switched from piston-powered engines to jet engines in the 1960s, they immediately became more reliable by a factor of 10.
Descending Mechanical Failure Frequency
1.Clogged fuel system
2. Throttle/mixture control
3. Oil line
4. Clogged carb/injectors
5. Connecting rods
6. carb/injector failure
1.One gear-up landing occurs on average every day in the U. S. 5% of retractable accidents are gear-up landings
2. Accidents most likely in retractables before 25 hours in type.
3. 7 out of 10 accidents in retractables are caused by pilot error.
4. 4% Fuel mismanagement
5. 3% mid air, near mid-air, stall/spin, non-compliance with clearance
Fixed Gear Accidents
--1 in 7 accidents result in a fatality in fixed gear aircraft
--8 of 10 fixed gear accidents due to pilot error.
--1 in 10 fixed gear accidents due to mechanical fault.
--Pilots of fixed gear most likely to have accident in first 100 hours.
--Accidents most likely in fixed gear before 20 hours in type.
1.Night emergency landings are 1.5 times as likely to result in a fatality.
2. 7% of flying is as night; 25% of the accidents; 46% of fatalities.
3. At night over 90% of your emergency options are gone.
4.m 47% of fatal weather accidents occurred at night.
--40% more than in flatlands.
--155% higher at some airports.
--1 accident in 20 is a wire strike
--A wire strike will occur below 200' AGL in VFR
--92% occur below 200' AGL
--90% occur below 100' AGL
--85% within 100' of surface
---46% of wire strikes are fatal
--77% due to pilot error
--General Aviation had 60% of strikes
--5% were around airports
During last five year period:
--7 encounters resulting in accidents
--12 encounters on approach with 2 fatal accidents
1.As of 1975 4 out of every 5 people ever killed in airplanes since the Wright brothers would have been alive if they had been wearing shoulder harness.
2. 50% of those in front seat wearing shoulder harness uninjured in accident while 13% died.
3. 50% of seat belt only died.
4. 88% of seriously injured in aircraft accidents would have been much less injured with shoulder harness.
5. Out of 500 severe accidents 20% more passengers would have survived with shoulder harness.
1.Ice accidents: One per year in California Indiana is worst with almost 2 a year. 4 of the 5 California accidents occurred between October and March.
2. 46% of flying fatalities are weather related.
3. 50% of these pilots had over 500 hours.
4. 28% of these pilots had instrument ratings.
5. 47% of these weather accidents occurred at night.
6. 71% involved violation of FARs
7. 10% of winter accidents are caused by "cold" alone.
8. Cold weather accidents result in 50% fatalities
9. Most winter accidents occur on the western slopes of mountain ranges such as the Sierras
10. An average of 44,000 thunderstorms occur each day throughout the world.
11. A Thunderstorm is never as bad on the inside as it appears on the outside. It's worse.
12. 1/4 of all accidents are weather related.
13. Tampa, Florida is the storm center of the U.S. with an average of 94 thunderstorms a year.
14. 1 accident in 61,900 hours in VFR conditions
15. No weather conforms to the weatherman's opinion of it.
16. Wet air is LIGHTER than dry air.
17. When a forecaster talks about yesterday's weather, he's a historian; about tomorrow's he's reading tea leaves.
18. If it's lousy weather here, it's probably good weather where you're going.
19. 1 in 10 accidents involved weather.
20. Only 6.5 of accidents are caused by wind.
21. Only 10% of these result in fatalities.
22. High-wing planes are 2 times more likely to have wind related accident.
23. A weather related accident is 2.5 times as likely to occur if the pilot has not obtained a weather briefing
Accidents by Experience Level
Less experienced pilots are more susceptible to accidents.
---Flying less than 10 hours in 30 days or less than 25 hours in 90 days greatly increases accident vulnerability.
----Pilots with over 5000 hours have lower accident rate of any pilots with 1000-5000 hours.
-----Only 10% of U.S. pilots have over 400 hours
IFR Rated Pilot
--1 accident in 4,459 hours in IFR conditions
---1 accident in 61,900 hours in VFR conditions.
----44% of serious accidents involve VFR into IFR
-----80% of fatal accidents result from non-IFR rated pilots flying into IFR conditions.
--1 accident in 12,186 hours in IFR conditions
--1 accident in 94,819 hours in VFR conditions.
-- An instrument pilot is most vulnerable with less than 100 hours instrument time.
-- In 28% of fatal accidents the pilots had instrument ratings.
1.75% of accidents involve poor pilot judgment with reference to his ability, knowledge, or capability.
2. Ego is the greatest single factor initiating poor judgment decisions.
3. In a given period, 80% of the accidents are set up by the human performance of the pilot.
4. 40% of these accidents are due to the selection of an improper procedure
5. 40% of these are due to the improper use of equipment
6. 20% are due to improper decision making
7. Flying is 90% knowing what to do and 10% doing it.
8. One out of every five General Aviation aircraft do not have radios. When you fly into a seldom used airport expect to meet ...such an aircraft.
9. The average time to find an aircraft with a filed flight plan is 38 hours. Without a plan it is three days.
Thoughts on Thoughts
1. Flying is not dangerous; crashing is dangerous
2. Flying is the perfect vocation for a man who wants to feel like a boy, but not for one who is.
3. There are five ways to fly: the right way, the wrong way, the company way the captain's way and the instructor's way. Only one counts.
4. Pilots underestimate the probability of any particular event happening to them.
5. Standard checklist practice requires pilots to read procedures used every day and recite from memory those needed once every five years.
6. An airplane may disappoint a good pilot, but it won't surprise him.
7. The nicer an airplane looks, the better it flies.
8. There are three rules for making a smooth landing: Unfortunately, no one knows what they are.
9. Any pilot who does not privately consider himself the best in the game is in the wrong game
10. Any attempt to stretch fuel is guaranteed to certain to increase headwinds.
11. One hole in the overcast is better than 10 published approaches.
12. A control tower tape that supports your version will be "accidentally erased."
13. The accident rate (1991) per 100,000 hours of flight is down. However, while the product (airplane equipment) factor ....rates are on the decrease, human factor rates have increased.
14. Most poor landings occur because of failure to utilize ground effect.
15. Flying straight and level is one of the most difficult skills in flying.
16. A well rigged airplane trimmed for a level 30 degree bank is stable in that bank yoke level to the cockpit.
17. Flying is where left handers of the world get even.
18. When you become confident, be three times as careful.
19. Lift is not always opposite weight. In a turn some lift "lifts" the plane into its curved path.
20. The turning radius of an airplane increases, and the ability to change course (rate of turn) decreases with the square of the aircraft velocity.
21. The rudder does not 'turn'.
22. Pilots walk funny because of the rudder.
23. When taxiing you may correctly turn the yoke to the left while turning right.
24. Back elevator does not always give 'up'.
25. Turning the aileron to raise the wing doesn't always work.
26. Flaps are not designed or intended, primarily, to slow the plane.
27. Bad decisions tend to follow bad decisions.
28. 50% of fatal accidents are caused by a series of judgmental errors.
29. "Dragging" a wing low can make 100' a minute climb rate loss. If you do not climb wings level on takeoff, you will be lower than you could be in the event of engine failure. The same logic applies for climbing at Vy during takeoff.
30. A constant landing approach angle is determined by airspeed.
31. The last thing you learn to do well is to taxi.
32. A steep landing approach gives better aim than a shallow one.
33. The trim wheel is moved 'backwards'. Moving it up lowers the nose; moving it down raises the nose. This is because you .....actually have hold of the 'tail' end of the trim wheel.
34. A comment about how well things are going is a guarantee of trouble. Never whistle in the cockpit.
35. One peek at the ground is worth a thousand instrument scans.
36. Half of the cost of a new aircraft is for product liability. Only 17% of all the money paid out by manufacturers in claim settlement ever reaches the original claimant.
37. 1% of all plane crashes are related to medical problems
Coffee causes dehydration. 15% dehydration causes 40% decrease in flying coordination. Water by volume X 1.5 is needed to replace dehydration caused by coffee.
1.In accidents from '78 to '87 6% of G.A. pilots had blood alcohol level of at least .04% by weight. 670 people were killed in these accidents.
2. NO 1997 alcohol related accidents.
1.A smoker of 1 and 1/2 packs a day, will ingest into his lungs a radiation level of 8000 millirem just from cigarettes in one year.
2. 500 millirem annually is the top of the "safe limit" for nuclear workers.
3. Such a smoker exceeds the safe limit by 16 times. This is equivalent to 300 chest X-rays a year.
4. The radio active residue from cigarette smoke (radium-226, radon-222, lead 210, and poloniun-210) remain in the lungs as ....hot spots for up to five years.
5. If you are with smokers for one hour you are breathing in the equivalent one cigarette, radiation and all.
6. A smoker starts a sea-level flight at 3000'
7. The pilot who smokes is a hazard to himself and other pilots.
8. Smoking exacerbates the negative effects of altitude, carbon monoxide, and lack of fluids.
9. The probability of becoming a pulmonary cripple and not being able to fly, alone makes it worthwhile stopping.
10. One cigarette is supposed to take four minutes off your expected life span, think how much flying you won't do.
11. I expect the day to come when smokers will be unable to become pilots.
12. At a given age (any age) 11 smokers die for every non-smoker who dies.
13. The smoker, on the average, dies 10 years before the average non-smoker who dies.
14. Every 53 seconds in the U.S. a smoker either quits smoking or quits breathing.
15. The peripheral vision of the smoker is reduced by approximately 39% from what normally would be available.
Data for West 1992
1.82% of accidents did not involve fatalities
2. 40% landing accidents
3. 17% fuel problem
4. 7% mechanical (landing gear etc.)
5. 9% engine problem
Fatalities and Survival
1.90% of people involved in ditching accidents survive.
2. Only 1 out of every 6 airplane accidents results in anyone being hurt or killed.
3. Any accident that occurs in normal landing sequence and configuration has 80% survival rate.
4. In 1991 41,150 died in auto accidents, only 49 died in major commercial airline accidents.
5. 46% of flying fatalities are weather related.
6. 1/3 of serious accidents are cause by poor preflight inspections
7. 50% of fatal accidents caused by a series of judgmental errors.
8. Flying less than 10 hours in 30 days or less than 25 hours in 90 days greatly increases accident vulnerability.
9. From '75 to '86 VFR into IFR had 4% of accidents and 19% of fatalities.
10. Fatalities occurred in 72% of the VFR into IFR accidents from '75 to '86
11. BFR (Biennial Flight Review) does not seem to detect flying deficiencies.
12. Add 10-15 % to takeoff/landing performance data to account for present aircraft performance since new.
13. A 2% uphill gradient can add 50% to the takeoff distance under adverse conditions.
Stall Spin Accidents
1.60% of stall/spin accidents take place during the takeoff/ landing phases of flight
2. 66% of general aviation accidents have as major factors failure to maintain climb/approach speeds.
3. Low wing aircraft increase rate of spin just prior to recovery.
4. Fewer than 5% of all spin accidents occur high enough above the surface to allow normal recovery.
5. About 8% of general aviation accidents are spin related and account for nearly 25% of the fatalities.
1.If altitude permits, glide range may be increased if propeller is stopped.
2. Speed half way between best rate and best angle of climb is duration glide speed.
3. A fair field with maneuvering altitude is better than a good field which requires a stretched glide.
4. Hit the softest, cheapest thing you can, as slowly as possible.
5. There will be one forced landing for every 200,000 flying hours. Hope to fly that long.
6. An airplane at 3000' has over 75 square miles of emergency landing area available. At 5000' there are 270 square miles available to have an accident. Cars should be so lucky.
7. 40% of pattern flying is such that the runway could not be made in the event of engine failure.
8. Less than 5% of fixed gear single forced landings result in serious injuries to occupants.
9. C-150/152s are over twice as likely to be involved in a forced landing compared to C-172. (Mostly due to air ...contamination of fuel tanks.)
10. 14% of daytime forced landings are serious
11. 20% of night forced landings were serious
12. 25% of instrument condition forced landings were serious.
13. Road forced landings are statistically safer.
14. A crash at 85 knots will be twice as severe as one at 60 knots.
15. The goal of a forced landing is to arrive slowly but under control. Faster is preferable to loss of control.
16. Ground contact at minimum controllable will have an impact less than a car-to-car collision.
17. Returning to the airport on takeoff is a proven killer during engine failure emergencies. If you haven't taken remedial instruction, don't do it.
18. In the event of engine failure, excess airspeed is lost before altitude. Use it to gain altitude.
19. At engine failure, removing flaps will extend your glide.Flight Reviews do not seem to detect flying deficiencies.
1.The number one cause of engine failure is lack of fuel.
2. 10% of General Aviation accidents are caused by fuel related mistakes.
3. 50% of all fuel related accidents occur within ONE mile of the destination airport.
4. Half of all forced landings are causes by air pollution of fuel tanks.
5. Just keeping fuel in the tanks would prevent half of the forced landings.
6. Fuel contamination causes 10% of forced landings.
7. In most instances of fuel related accidents the pilot has elected to fly right past refueling points.
8. Common cause of engine failure is air contamination in the fuel tank.
9. 1 in 7 accidents due to fuel mismanagement.
10. Multiply horsepower by .09 to give gallons per hour consumption with safety factor.
11. The mortality rate of fuel related accidents is quite low. Probably because pilot is aware of his problem and has been doing ....some serious 'what if' planning.
12. Low wing aircraft have twice as many fuel related engine failures as do high wing aircraft.
13. An airplane may be too heavy to safely or legally land. The gear may be able to withstand the stress of takeoff. This is why ....some aircraft are made capable of jettisoning fuel prior to landing.
14. It is possible to have too much fuel on a flight. (When you're on fire.)
Nice to Know Information
1.Multiply horsepower by .09 to give gallons per hour consumption with safety factor.
2. Most aircraft performance is 50% less at 7000' when compared with sea level.
3. A 10 knot tail wind doubles the required landing distances.
4. Wet or icy fields can increase landing ground roll 100%.
5. A slightly rolling wheel provides more braking than a skidding wheel.
6. The most dangerous time to fly a plane is just after a mechanic has worked on it.
7. Right comes in several different forms.
8. All tower clearances are only permissive.
9. Vertigo sensations cannot be prevented, they can be ignored.
10. You will never be ready for an emergency landing.
11.Less experienced pilots are most susceptible to accidents.
12. Accidents are the result of avoidable or preventable situations. (Stay in bed)
13. One of the safest times to fly is while learning.
14. Courtesy is a most effective flying lubricant.
15. Men are more likely to fail to pay attention or make bad decisions.
16. Women are more likely to mishandle the aircraft.
1.The weather will be all right
2. We will be on time, maybe even early
3. Sudden turbulence spoiled my landing.
4. I only need glasses for reading.
5. I broke out right at minimums.
6. You don't need to worry about weight and balance.
7. If we get a little lower I think we'll see the lights.
8. We shipped the part yesterday
9. All you have to do is follow the book.
10. This plane outperforms the book by 20%
11. I have 5000 hours total time, 3500 are actual instrument
12. No need to look that up, I've got it all memorized.
13. Sure I can fly it.
14. We'll be home by lunch time.
15. Your aircraft will be ready by 2 o'clock.
16. It just came out of maintenance - how could anything be wrong?
17. I thought you took care of that.
18. I've got the field in sight.
19. I've got the traffic in sight.
20. Of course I know where we are.
21. I'm sure the gear was down.
1.The rudder is not used to turn the plane. ...Rather, it keeps the nose straight.
2. Just adding power causes you to go slower.
3. Diving for the runway makes you land longer.
4. Raising the nose can bring you down faster and over less distance.
5. Three aircraft instruments will work as well off the plane. Thermometer, compass and a wind-up clock
6. The top of the wing lifts the airplane.
7. The tail of a plane pushes down in flight.
8. A good landing is made by trying not to land.
9. Cross wind landings are correctly made on one wheel.
10. While going north and turning right the compass goes left.
11. To go to a heading on the compass you turn away from it.
12. Right rudder is often used in a left turn.
13. Left aileron is often used in a right turn.
14. An airplane glides best with its nose up.
15. Oil temperature indicates engine temperature.
Where Accidents Happen
1. Only 8% of mid-airs are from head-on. 42% are between airplanes flying in the same direction.
2. Pilots, as a group, are getting older.
3. Highest accident rate is in personal/pleasure flying
4. Second highest area of accidents is instructional flying. 306 accidents, 31 fatal, 53 fatalities. (year?) Most occurred during student solo.
5. 65% during landing phase.
6. 1/3 accidents in landing.
7. 1 in 5 accidents during takeoff.
8. 45% of all accidents occur during takeoff and landing
9. Instructional accidents occur at a rate of 6.5 per 100,000 hours of instruction. This is half the personal rate.
10. 70% of the instructional accidents occur during the takeoff landing phase.
Accident Precipitating Causes 1991
1.Inadequate preflight and/or planning
2. 1/4 of all accidents are caused by inadequate preflight.
3. Failure to obtain and/or maintain flying speed
4. Failure to maintain directional control
5. Improper level-off
6. Failure to see and avoid objects or obstructions
7. Fuel mismanagement
8. Improper decisions or planning
9. Misjudgment of distance and speed
10. Selection of unsuitable terrain for landing/
12.Improper operation of flight controls
ATC Problems in Descending Order
1.Non-adherence to clearance, FAR's, or published procedures.
2. Erroneous penetration of airspace - TCA's, ARSAs, or control zones.
3. Airborne conflict
4. Altitude deviations
5. Equipment problem
FAR Violations in Descending Order
1.Careless or reckless operation
2. Compliance with ATC clearances and instructions
3. Failure to meet requirement for certificate, rating and authorization. Especially medical certificate. Only 72% of pilot accident victims were current and legal for the phase of flight to the accident.
4. Non-compliance with ATC clearance and instructions.
5. Failure to get required clearance at tower airport.
6. Proper registration certificate missing.
7. Non-airworthy aircraft.
8. Failure to maintain minimum safe altitudes.
Midair Accidents in 10 Years1983-94
2. 132 accidents with 56% fatality rate
3. 3 air to air contacts per month
4. 1 fatality every two months
5. 55% near airports
6. Non-standard pattern and sun angle factor
7. 34% flight instruction
8. 92% VFR conditions even if IFR flight
9. Biplane increases risk
10. 10% during formation flight
766 mid-airs 1807 fatalities
2. 44% of mid-airs have no fatalities
3. 19% General Aviation Vs Air Carrier no fatalities
4. Mid-airs constitute less than .1 of 1% of accidents(1/1000)
5. VOR's are source regions for 46% of mid-air near misses.
6. 50% to those involved in mid-airs have less than 1000 hours of flying.
7. 5% of pilots are having 50% of midair accidents?
8. In the U.S. there are an average of two mid-airs a month. Of These 99% are caused by failure to see.
9. 80% occur below 300' close to an airport
10. 52% of mid-airs are in high wing which make up 38% of total aircraft.
11. 50% of mid-airs caused by faster low wing overtaking high wing.
12. 90% not on a flight plan (so what)
13. 4% on IFR plan
14. 96% in daylight
15. 14% at night. (only 4% of flying at night)
16. 70% below 3000'; most of these below 1000'
17. 50% in training
18. 80% overtaking
19. 10% crossing
20. 70% within 5 miles of airport and 3 minutes of takeoff or 8 minutes prior to landing
21. 30% over VOR's
22. 80% on final, 8% on base, 2% downwind
More on Mid-airs
1. Over half of the people involved in midair accidents were survivors.
2. The probability of a midair accident is one in two million as of 1987. You are more apt to collide on the ground.
3. General Aviation planes are in 95% of mid-airs.
4. Most mid-airs/near misses occur in severe VFR.
5. Mid-airs account for about 2% of aircraft accident fatalities.
6. The most likely place for a midair is in the traffic pattern at an uncontrolled airport.
7. 20% of the mid-airs involved a flight instructor in one plane.
8. If all U.S. General Aviation aircraft were flying at the same altitude and speed, they all could be in the air over Arizona at the same time and still have more than a square mile in each direction in which to maneuver
82% occur by one aircraft being overtaken from the rear.
35% occur with convergence less than 10 degrees.
77% occur below 3000'
49% occur below 500'
--The pilot is responsible for maintaining a scan which may or may not be supplemented by ATC.
--Use CRM especially passengers
--Be accurate on your position reports and suspicious of those of others.
--Check and recheck all clearances and advisories.
--If you lose visual contact with reported traffic, let ATC know.
--Avoid letting terrain or weather suck you into a high traffic area.
--Avoid direct flight through VORs
--The higher you fly the less traffic you will have.
--Fly coastlines at least 1/2 mile off-shore
--Clean your windows.
--Strobe lights increase aircraft delectability times 10.
CFIT (Controlled flight into terrain)
Accidents occur when situational awareness is compromised and account for 25% of aviation accidents.
Four of every five Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT) occurs in very cold weather. Says something about the validity of altimeter settings in cold conditions.
A serious problem costing over $150 million per year in aircraft damage and occasionally a life.
Bird strikes -1998
On average $250 million damage to aircraft, $77 million related loses, and 500,000 hours of aircraft downtime.
19% of fleet are taildraggers.
6 to 29% of landing accidents.
1983 Climb to Cruise Accidents (454 total)
Neglected maintenance 79
Fuel contamination 50
Wind conditions 31
Lack of familiarity 24
Loss of power 5
Unsuitable terrain 35
Inadequate preflight 25
Weight and Balance 3
Density altitude 15
Carburetor ice 3
Undetermined 46 (Carburetor ice leaves no evidence this is 10% of total)
Here you go for statistics
--No definitive answer as to relative safety over singles.
--Recurrent training improves twin's safety record
--Largest unkown factor is number of single engine landings.
--Many twin accidents begin as minor maintenance problems that snowball into accidents.
--Inadequate pilot knowledge of aircraft systems is common fault
--Twin accidents are 4 times more likely to cause fatality
--Depending on twin type fatality rate is between 20 and 50 percent of the accidents.
--Twin POH is deceptive as to performance capability for average piloting skills.
--Twins are more likely to fly in poor IFR conditions leading to disproportionately more accidents.
--Maintenance is more critical and more likely to be ignored in twins
--A well maintained aircraft with a well trained pilot flown below gross is probably safer than a single.
--31.2 of the accidents occur during takeoff with only 3.3 of the fatalities. Stay on the ground if you can.
--14.7 of the accidents occur during landings with 28.6 of the fatalities. Stay in the air if you can.
--Above is evidence that the go-around is a far better decision than trying to fix a poor landing.
--In 1979 15+ accidents per 100,000 hours of general aviation flying.
--In 2003 rate of accident is 1.5 per 100,000 hours of general aviation flying
---The downward slide in GA accidents and fatalities hit an updraft in 2003 ---The total number of GA accidents rose 2.5 percent in 2003
---In the past 10 years, the accident rate per 100,000 flight hours has declined 25.3 percent.
---Accidents recorded in 2003, 20.6 percent were fatal and 75.9 percent were pilot-related.
---Takeoffs and landings cause more than half of all accidents
Return to whittsflying
Continued on 6.35More Statistics on Flying